Early NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index

[carlitosway]

We’re now entering the part of the NFL season where, frankly, the projections and data will mean less and less, and evaluating which teams are incentivized to show up and win (or lose!) becomes more important. With playoff seeding and draft positions at stake, some teams will be mailing it in, and some teams will be out for blood; it’s up to us as handicappers to analyze the situation and do our best to mentally account for the motivational factor. As a data guy, I hate these last few weeks of the season because I’m not comfortable betting things I can’t quantify. I will do my best, but I will decrease volume progressively as we reach the end of the regular season. Let’s see where there might be some value – numbers or otherwise – in my NFL Week 15 best bets:

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions (-1.5; 54.5)​

What a showdown we have on tap for Week 15, featuring the T Shoe Index’s top two teams. TSI has the Lions favored by 2.5, but I’m more interested in the total in this game. The Bills are coming off an 80+ point shootout with the Rams, so I think people will rush to the window to bet this Over. I don’t entirely blame them, as both teams can score in bunches; however, TSI is projecting “just” 52 points in this game, and the early sharp movement bought the Under at 54. This game will feel like a playoff game, so I would expect more ball control and fewer fireworks than we’ve seen from these offenses in recent weeks, as both are currently in the TSI top 3 offensively. The Lions, though, boast the #1 defense in TSI, while the Bills D is middle of the pack at the moment. There will be moments where this probably looks dicey, but I’m trusting the numbers and the early line movement.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Detroit Lions/Buffalo Bills Under 54.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3; 47)​

Seattle won outright as underdogs last week against the Cardinals, while the Packers gave the Lions all they could handle before coming up short in a 3-point loss. I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Packers coming off a close, divisional game against the best team in the league. TSI projects Green Bay -2, but actually, looking at these teams’ recent 5 games, I’d make it a pick ‘em. Seattle’s defense has shown a resurgence late in the season, moving up to second in TSI defensive ratings, allowing just under 19 points per game. I also project this game slightly under the total, so I expect a lower-than-expected scoring game that Seattle has a chance to win at the end. Notable price equivalency here: +3 (-133) is equal to +2.5 (-110) in terms of implied probability, so look to get +3 at (-132) or better.
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +3, -115 (Play to +3, -132)